They all belong in political wilderness in my not-so-humble opinion but that would be too short a diary. So...
In his blog post The Multi-Ring Republican Nomination Circus, Chris Weigant sorts Republican candidates into six broad groups. Now while I am an admirer of Weigant's work, I can't agree with him here because there are too many cross-overs, ie those who obviously belong in more than one group.
Nevertheless, the idea of sorting and filing them into categories remained an intriguing idea so I decided to give it a go. Without the assistance of the Sorting Hat of Harry Potter fame, I chose to use Weigant's groupings as a basis and refine it with subgroups as a means of cross-filing the cross-overs.
I only got as far as the second subgroup when I realized this wasn't going to solve the cross-over problem either. I discussed it with my ever-helpful flatmate Duggy who suggested that candidates could be grouped with regard to two criteria: the prime basis of their platform and which voting contingent they are aiming to lock in. With that in mind, I settled on the following...
1) Establishment - with Mittens gone there now remains only Jeb and Christie. The latter is likely to go down in flames in the next 12 months (due to current investigations getting their collective arses into gear and emerging with indictments) which will leave Jeb as the lone representative.
2) TeaPublicans – This is something of a catch-all group and therefore needs sub-groupings to avoid multiple cross-overs. The only person who alone slots into this category is Marco Rubio because he doesn't really fit anywhere else. He's eager though. With a future presidential run in mind, he attempted to gain leadership status by authoring the definitive GOP policy on immigration reform. Initial acclaim was short-lived when his signature policy drowned in the brine of diverse and vociferous opinions in the House. He then had some success by launching the I-am-not-a-scientist meme until it became over-used and degenerated into a figure of satirical speech. Not one to give up easily, Rubio then resurrected his immigration policy but all he could manage was a zombie and a very torpid zombie at that. That he doesn't fit into any specific grouping here mirrors the fact that he's also been unable to find a niche in his own party.
Subgroups:
(i) Libertarian – As the lone ranger in this category, Rand Paul has the Libertarian vote sown up but he'll need to make serious inroads into a larger voting bloc if he's to have any chance at all. From his speeches so far, it's clear he's aiming his policies at tea partiers which is a good move since they are far more gullible than moderate voters.
(ii) Evangelicals – This contains Huckabee, Cruz, Jindal and Santorum.
Santorum is an also-ran and a lightweight in this group. The only reason he will stay in the race beyond his use-by date is because he's congenitally incapable of recognizing when he's beaten. This dubious talent for see-nothing-I-don't-like and hear-nothing-I-don't-like when it comes to tactical decision-making, disqualifies him as a viable candidate in any case.
Jindal also fits in the next category but I've put him here because his platform is heavily religion-based rather than I'm-a-governor-and-can-therefore-govern-the country. Jindal, however, is solid crackpot material who lacks popularity in his own state so he's highly unlikely to appeal to anyone elsewhere.
Huckabee also fits into the next category but like Jindal, he's running on religion rather than claiming management skills. Religious and cultural fanaticism is certainly his strong suit but it's also proving to be his weakness. In his book, God, Guns, Grits and Gravy, he divided the country into fly-over versus coastal culture which sparked angry criticism from people in both areas. While coastal dwellers like their food just fine thank you, most people in flyover country understandably object to being pigeon-holed as "Bubbas". This broad-brush culling of voters will not go in his favour. Eliciting contempt from a former colleague at Fox Propaganda is also a strong indication that he'll get no support from them either.
Ted Cruz will emerge as the strongest candidate in this group. He's a smart, slick manipulator and by far the most capable of riding the evangelical wave.
(iii) Governors - This category is the most popular with more potential names in it than any of the others. That's not surprising when you consider that four of the last six presidents have been former governors. Those running in this category are heavily relying on the I-can-run-a-country-because-I-can-run-a-state as a form of qualification. In the case of the current crop of candidates, however, this is entirely delusional. At the top of the list we find Rick Perry (Texas) and Scott Walker (Wisconsin) who respectively are the I-ran-the-state-so-badly-I’m-now-under-indictment and I-can-run-a-state-into-the-ground kind of governors.
Trailing them are Jan Brewer (Arizona), Rick Scott (Florida), Mike Pence (Indiana), Rick Snyder (Michigan), John Kasich (Ohio), George Pataki (New York) and Jim Gilmore (Virginia). Should any of these decide to take the plunge they will find their particular section of the pool is little more than a puddle in which case “splat” will be a better description then “plunge”.
3) Uber-Hawks – As Chris Weigant helpfully explains, “This might also be called the "Bomb Everyone Now" group”. Yes indeed so it's very clear who belongs in this category: Lindsey Graham and John Bolton. Bolton really belongs in the final grouping and is only here because his platform conspicuously has only this one plank. Also, I include Bolton so Lindsey won’t feel segregated – the shock would result in prolonged use of an already saggy fainting couch.
Lindsey Graham is an oddity in this race. (Of course I could have put a full stop after "oddity" and still garnered general agreement with the statement but let's move on.) His motivation for jumping in isn't clear at all which invites lots of delicious speculation. Weigant suggests: “I guess he is one of those Republicans who figured: "Hey, everyone else is running, why shouldn't I?"” though it seems more likely that John McCain is the real impetus behind Graham's decision. Perhaps subconsciously McCain wants his number one fan to keep him company in the Losers’ Club.
4) No-hopers – Chris Weigant calls this the "Longshots" group but he's more polite than I am. It's a crowded category of wannabes and includes such half-candle luminaries as Ben Carson, Bob Corker, Carly Fiorina, Pete King, Bob Ehrlich, Sarah Palin and Donald Trump. None of them are going to trouble the bookmakers though Carson, Palin and Trump do have unlimited ability to make nuisances of themselves.
If I've missed any names, please mention them in the comments.
Perhaps you'd group them differently. Certainly Duggy was all for categories that described degrees of craziness which began with "mostly crazy" and ended with "certifiably insane". It's an appealing thought and I was tempted...
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